Surplus rain likely in second half of monsoon, says IMD

In August, rain is expected to be “normal to below normal over parts of northwest and central India”.

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Rainfall during the second half of the June-September monsoon season is expected to be on the higher side of normal, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said today.

The rain over the country during the second half (August and September) 2021 southwest monsoon season “is most likely to be normal (95 to 105% of Long Period Average) with a tendency to be on the positive side of the normal”, the weather office said.

In August, rain is expected to be “normal to below normal over parts of northwest and central India”. “Monthly rainfall for August over the country is most likely to be normal (94 to 106% of the LPA). Spatial distribution suggests that below normal to normal rainfall is likely over many areas of central India and some areas over northwest India. Normal to above-normal rainfall is most likely over most parts of peninsular India and northeast India,” IMD Director General Mrutunjay Mohapatra said.

West Madhya Pradesh and adjoining Rajasthan, some parts of interior Maharashtra, Jammu and Kashmir, Ladakh, some parts of Punjab and HP are expected to receive below normal rainfall in August, Mohapatra said.

Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Telangana, Rayalaseema region of Andhra Pradesh, Konkan and Goa, central Maharashtra, south Gujarat, northeastern states, Bihar are likely to receive above-normal rainfall during the month, he added.

The latest global model forecasts indicate that the prevailing neutral ENSO conditions are likely to continue over the equatorial Pacific Ocean. However, sea surface temperatures over central and east equatorial Pacific Ocean are showing cooling tendency and there is an increased possibility of re-emergence of the La Nina condition at the end of the monsoon season or thereafter.

So far, June received 10 per cent more rainfall than normal. July recorded a rainfall deficit of seven per cent. The deficit was 25 per cent in the east and northeast India division of the IMD whereas the south peninsula received 27 per cent more rainfall than the normal. Northwest and central India registered a deficiency of 7 per cent.

Overall, the country has received one per cent less rainfall than normal from June 1 to July 31.

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